Asset Management

Economic and Market Insights

Print

Featured Video


Featured Reports

February 26, 2015
Dollar Power: Implications of a rising dollar
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist  

Executive Summary:

Learn More (PDF)

January 26, 2015
How low can you go? The risks, and rewards, of deflation
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
Executive Summary:

Learn More (PDF)

January 5, 2015
2015 Economic Forecast
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Executive Summary:

Read more (PDF)

January 5, 2015
2015 Investment Outlook: Rougher waters ahead
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
Executive Summary:

Read more (PDF)

November 14, 2014
Over a barrel: Causes and consequences of the fall in oil prices
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
Executive Summary:

Read more (PDF)

October 1, 2014
4th Quarter 2014 Investment Outlook: Turning Point
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
The U.S. economy continues to recover at a measured, modest pace — more like a tortoise than a hare. We forecast that by the end of the year annualized GDP growth will reach 3.5%, which seems strong compared to the 2.1% average rate since 2009, but is disappointing compared to the post-war average of 4.3%. The biggest barrier to a more vigorous economic expansion remains the consumer. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) have grown by just 1.6% over the last four quarters, a full percentage point below historical norms. The consequences of the Great Recession and the Federal Reserve’s measures to address it continue to sap demand from both debtors and creditors.
Read more (PDF)

July 3, 2014
2014 Mid-Year Outlook: Keep calm and carry on
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
The global economy finished the second quarter on an upbeat note, driven by stronger results from developed economies and continued easy monetary policy from major central banks. Among the signs of economic strength heading into the third quarter: climbing global purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), rising global trade, and stable or increasing industrial production across most regions (see Exhibit 1). The U.S. economy is the main driver, with an expected second-quarter growth rate of 3.6%. Although still in the shadow of recession, Europe is showing signs of life; its economy should grow by close to 1% in the second quarter. China's growth, though still slowing from last year’s nearly 8% rate, looks to stabilize closer to a 7% pace. Japan's economy will shrink in the second quarter due to a sales tax hike, but this should not completely offset its strong first quarter (see Exhibit 2).
Read more (PDF)

April 4, 2014
Market Outlook: Delayed Gratification
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
Was investor optimism at the beginning of the year misplaced, or simply premature? January began with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 3% as the economy looked to accelerate in the year ahead; expected corporate earnings growth of over 10% for U.S. companies suggested that equity prices could continue to rise even after the 30% gain for the S&P 500 Index in 2013. Three months later, bond yields have fallen sharply and U.S. equities are not far from where they began the year.
Learn More (PDF)

February 2, 2014
2014 Market Preview: The end of easy money
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
The author provides additional support for his thesis that withdrawal of central bank monetary stimulus will be the primary driver of financial markets in 2014. The end of the Fed’s QE III program could cause a temporary downturn in U.S. equity markets – similar to the end of earlier programs. Earnings growth and reasonable valuations have the potential to support moderate stock market gains, but significantly lower than in 2013. Many factors are likely to pose challenges for investors: Debt loads and slow earnings growth in Europe, investment outflows in emerging markets, and rising interest rates in fixed-income markets.
Learn More (PDF)

January 29, 2014
2014 Economic Forecast
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF
The author provides deeper analysis supporting his forecast that the U.S. economy is moving toward a self-sustaining recovery in 2014. He provides additional data on key drivers of expected accelerating growth: Consumer spending, housing, job growth, budget agreement in Washington, and positive global influences, such as economic reform in China. The pace of Fed tapering and rising interest rates constitute the major risk to growth, although the forecast calls for 10-Year Treasury rates to rise only moderately from 3% to 3.45% by year-end.
Learn More (PDF)

C15118