Asset Management

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April 4, 2014
Market Outlook: Delayed Gratification
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
Was investor optimism at the beginning of the year misplaced, or simply premature? January began with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 3% as the economy looked to accelerate in the year ahead; expected corporate earnings growth of over 10% for U.S. companies suggested that equity prices could continue to rise even after the 30% gain for the S&P 500 Index in 2013. Three months later, bond yields have fallen sharply and U.S. equities are not far from where they began the year.
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February 2, 2014
2014 Market Preview: The end of easy money
Daniel Morris, CFA, Global Investment Strategist
The author provides additional support for his thesis that withdrawal of central bank monetary stimulus will be the primary driver of financial markets in 2014. The end of the Fed’s QE III program could cause a temporary downturn in U.S. equity markets – similar to the end of earlier programs. Earnings growth and reasonable valuations have the potential to support moderate stock market gains, but significantly lower than in 2013. Many factors are likely to pose challenges for investors: Debt loads and slow earnings growth in Europe, investment outflows in emerging markets, and rising interest rates in fixed-income markets.
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January 29, 2014
2014 Economic Forecast
Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF
The author provides deeper analysis supporting his forecast that the U.S. economy is moving toward a self-sustaining recovery in 2014. He provides additional data on key drivers of expected accelerating growth: Consumer spending, housing, job growth, budget agreement in Washington, and positive global influences, such as economic reform in China. The pace of Fed tapering and rising interest rates constitute the major risk to growth, although the forecast calls for 10-Year Treasury rates to rise only moderately from 3% to 3.45% by year-end.
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